Predicting an Apple event
It’s prediction time again: Apple have sent an invitation for their October event. I just read Nick Heer’s predictions for what we’ll see. The thing that struck me was how many of them there are. From my memory of Apple announcement, I didn’t think they’d announce so many things at once. So I went digging.
Apple’s events usually have one headline hardware announcement: the one thing that they want you to remember afterwards. This may comprise a few products (iPhone 5S and 5C, for example), but they’ll be related products that together tell one story. Then there may be one unrelated minor announcement, an update regarding a new OS version (that has already been revealed), plus one or two software or service announcements, and some mention of new accessories. And that’s usually it, isn’t it?
Let’s look at examples, starting with the iPhone 5 launch. The main announcement was of course the 5. The minor but unrelated hardware was the new Nano. The OS update was iOS 6, which had already been previewed at WWDC. The software/service was iTunes 11. Accessories were new earbuds and lightning adaptors. This fits the pattern.
The iPhone 5S/5C event: the one we’ve just had. Headline was the new iPhones. OS update was iOS 7, which again we’d seen at WWDC. Service was iTunes Radio. There was no minor announcement (I guess it could be argued that the 5S was the headline and the 5C was the minor announcement). Accessories included 5C cases. This one also fits the pattern.
The iPad mini event: the big news was the iPad mini, plus the related but less important announcement of the iPad 4. Minor but unrelated hardware? Well, we had the new thin iMacs, new retina Macbook Pro 13", spec bumps for the Mac mini, and the Fusion Drive technology. Software-wise we got iBooks and iBooks Author updates. So this announcement doesn’t quite fit the pattern — the iPad mini was the take-home message, but the new thin iMacs were also a big deal.
So what of the upcoming event? The headline feature would be iPads. We’ve had lots of leaks for the new full-size iPad, with its narrower bezel and smaller size, so I think that’s a cert. iPad mini is also due for an upgrade, although I couldn’t call whether it will go retina or not. The minor unrelated hardware would be Mac Pro — minor in that it’s been previewed already, so it’s not a new headliner. OS update will be Mavericks, which has also already been seen. So that’s all of Nick’s “Count on” section (apart from iOS 7 update: I doubt they’d take up any presentation time showing one, even if one does come out around then.)
What about his sandwich, coffee or nickel sections? Well, we don’t have a software or service release yet, so iWork could go there. I reckon we’re more likely to see updated iLife though, especially with the leaked icons. Other apps: iBooks might get a mention, if the update is significant. A Find my Friends update might, mainly because it was the poster child for skeumorphism. Whether or not they’re talked about at the event, I’d expect updates for everything except maybe Remote to happen by the end of the year. (Remote, as far as I can tell, is someone’s pet project rather than something Apple is committed to.)
Dropping iPad 2 isn’t an announcement thing — it may well happen, but they won’t mention it. Ditto dropping the iPod Classic, which I’m surprised hasn’t happened already. (I did notice one prominently on display in an Apple Store recently though, which surprised me.) Updated MacBooks, if they’re just a spec bump, could fit into this event even alongside the Mac Pro, based on the precedent set at the iPad mini event.
The new thunderbolt display is an interesting one. All signs point to Apple attempting to build a super high resolution display: especially the new Thunderbolt 2, specifically stated as driving 4K displays. And also, if it’s not super high res, then why make a new one? But launching that, a very much pro feature and one that would grab headlines, in the same event as the consumer iPads, seems odd. I reckon if they have a new display, then both that and the Mac Pro release will get their own pro-focussed event, maybe also incorporating a Final Cut Pro update.
I agree that the smartwatch is a “no chance”, and anything to do with TV is unlikely (much as I’d love an SDK for the Apple TV, to go with the new game controller support in iOS…).
To conclude, it is entirely possible to get a long list of updated things into one Apple event. When making predictions, it’s important to think of which ones are the headline grabbers: if a smartwatch did come out, for example, then that would have to be the headline product and the iPads would be regulated to the “minor update” part of the presentation. But Apple do sometimes get a huge list of updates into one event, even if the audience are only intended to remember one or two of them.